The three estimation times used in PERT are:
- Optimistic Time Estimate (To)
- Most Likely Time (Tm)
- Pessimistic Time (Tp)
The three-time estimates are determined for each activity.
1. Optimistic Time Estimate(To) in PERT
It is the fastest time an activity can be completed. Here the assumption made is that all the resources are available and all the predecessor activities are completed as per the plan.
2. Most Likely Time(Tm) in PERT
If the project managers are demanded only to submit a single time for each activity, then they submit the most likely time.
3. Pessimistic Time(Tp)
This is the maximum time required to finish an activity. For cases when everything goes wrong and gets delayed, this time estimate is considered.
These time estimates may seem simple but are very difficult to prepare and calculate for each event. But their details help to leverage useful information about the expected uncertainties in an activity. The time estimates for PERT analysis can be expressed in days, weeks, or months.
Expected Completion Time (T) and Possible Variance (V) in PERT
T = (To + 4Tm + Tp )/6
Standard Deviation = (Tp - To)/6
Variance V = Sqaure of Standar Variation = (Tp-To)2/36
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